🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."